Greater Covid-19 Severity and Mortality in Hospitalized Patients in Second (Delta Variant) Wave Compared to the First: Single Centre Prospective Study in India (preprint)

Background & ObjectiveCovid-19 pandemic has led to multiple waves secondary to mutations in SARS-CoV-2 and emergence of variants of concern (VOC). Clinical characteristics of delta (B.1.617.2) VOC are not well reported. To compare demographic, clinical and laboratory features and outcomes in the second Covid-19 wave in India (delta VOC) with the previous wave we performed a registry-based study. MethodsSuccessive SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) confirmed Covid-19 patients presenting to our Advanced Covid Care hospital were prospectively recruited. In the first phase (wave) from March-December 2020, 1395 of 7476 (18.7%) suspected patients tested positive and 863 (61.89%) hospitalized, while in second wave from January-July 2021 out of 1641 confirmed cases out of 8680 (19.4%) suspected 388 (23.6%) were hospitalized. Details of clinical and laboratory features at admission to hospital, management and outcomes in the two waves have been compared. ResultsIn both cohorts, majority were men and 20% less than 40 years. Prevalence of hypertension, diabetes and cardiovascular diseases was more than 20%. Second wave patients had similar pre-hospitalization symptom duration but had significantly greater cough, fever and shortness of breath and lower SpO2 at presentation with greater lymphopenia, C-reactive proteins, interleukin-6, ferritin, lactic dehydrogenase and transaminases. In the second vs first wave patients, requirement of supplementary oxygen (47.9% vs 34.3%), prone positioning (89.2 vs 38.6%), high flow nasal oxygen(15.7 vs 9.1%), non-invasive ventilation (14.4 vs 9.5%), invasive ventilation (16.2 vs 9.5%), steroids (94.1 vs 85.9%), remdesivir (91.2 vs 76.0%) and anticoagulants (94.3 vs 76.0%) was greater (p<0.001). Median (IQR) length of stay [8 (6-10) vs 7 (5-10) days] as well as ICU stay [9 (5-13) vs 6 (2-10) days] was more in second wave (p<0.001). In-hospital deaths occurred in 173 patients (13.9%) and were significantly more in the second wave, 75 (19.3%), compared to the first, 98 (11.5%); unadjusted odds ratio (95% CI) 1.84 (1.32-2.55) which did not change significantly with adjustment for age and sex (2.03, 1.44-2.86), and age, sex and comorbidities (2.09, 1.47-2.95). Greater disease severity at presentation was associated with mortality in both the waves. ConclusionsCovid-19 patients hospitalized during the second wave of the epidemic (delta variant) had more severe disease with greater dyspnea, hypoxia, hematological and biochemical abnormalities compared to first wave patients. They had greater length of stay in intensive care unit, oxygen requirement, non-invasive and invasive ventilatory support. The in-hospital mortality in the second wave was double of the first.

Macrolevel Association of COVID-19 with Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factors in India (preprint)

ABSTRACT Objective Greater COVID-19 related mortality has been reported among persons with various non-communicable diseases (NCDs). We performed an ecological study to determine the association of state-level cases and deaths with NCD risk factors and healthcare and social indices. Methods We obtained cumulative national and state-level data on COVID-19 cases and deaths from publicly available database www.covid19india.org from February to end November 2020. To identify association with major NCD risk factors, NCDs, healthcare related and social variables we obtained data from public sources. Association was determined using univariate and multivariate statistics. Results More than 9.5 million COVID-19 cases and 135,000 deaths have been reported in India at end November 2020. There is significant positive correlation (Pearson’s r) of state-level COVID-19 cases and deaths per million, respectively, with NCD risk factors- obesity (0.64, 0.52), hypertension (0.28, 0.16), diabetes (0.66, 0.46), literacy, NCD epidemiological transition index (0.58, 0.54) and ischemic heart disease mortality (0.22, 0.33). Correlation is also observed with indices of healthcare access and quality (0.71, 0.61), urbanization (0.75, 0.73) and human (0.61, 0.56) and sociodemographic (0.70, 0.69) development. Multivariate adjusted analyses shows strong correlation of COVID-19 burden and deaths with NCD risk factors (r 2 =0.51, 0.43), NCDs (r 2 =0.32, 0.16) and healthcare related factors (r 2 =0.52, 0.38). Conclusions COVID-19 disease burden and mortality in India is ecologically associated with greater state-level burden of NCDs and risk factors, especially obesity and diabetes. KEY MESSAGES There is significant state-level variability in COVID-19 cases and deaths in India. In a macrolevel statistical analysis we find that Indian states with better human and sociodemographic indices, more literacy, longer age, greater burden of non-communicable diseases and risk factors have greater COVID-19 case burden and mortality. Non-communicable disease risk factors- obesity and diabetes are the most important determinants on multivariate analyses.